Rizespor v Erzurumspor FK: analysis and our pick

Rizespor looking for a response

Rizespor have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Kocaelispor and a 3–4 home defeat to Trabzonspor. Erzurumspor FK have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to Çorum FK and a 3–1 away win at Gaziantep FK.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 35%. Rizespor score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game, Erzurumspor FK 1.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.5 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 76% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Erzurumspor FK · 43%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 50%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 76%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Erzurumspor FK have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 50% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Rizespor — last game: Away to Kocaelispor (0-0) they had 55% of the shots (17 to 14, on target 4-4) and 51% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 30′–45′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 120% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 45% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Erzurumspor FK — last game: Against Çorum FK (1-3) they had 65% of the shots (13 to 7, on target 3-3) and 53% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 3 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 20′. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–76′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 74′, conceded on 71′. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.