Napoli v Lazio: analysis and our pick

Lazio have a chance to respond

Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at FC Porto and a 0–2 away defeat at Juventus. Lazio have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Cagliari and a 6–2 away win at Sassuolo.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. Napoli score 2.4 and concede 2.6 a game, Lazio 3.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 2.1 = 3.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 89% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Lazio · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 70%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 89%: the model expects 3.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Lazio have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 70% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Napoli — last game: Away to FC Porto (1-4) they had 37% of the shots (11 to 19, on target 6-8) and 48% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 8 on target. 🟥 Red card on 88′ for Napoli (Rafael Marin Zamora): they played with ten for ~2 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 11′. 30′–45′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 43′. 45′–60′: under 77% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 3 theirs. Lazio — last game: Against Cagliari (2-1) they had 55% of the shots (11 to 9, on target 4-3) and 74% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Cagliari (Adam Obert): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 20′. 30′–45′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 36′. 45′–60′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 62% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 3 for opponents.