Monza v Atalanta: analysis and our pick

Monza looking for a response

Monza have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Bologna and a 1–4 home defeat to Napoli. Atalanta have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Kairat Almaty and a 0–3 home defeat to Parma.

The head-to-head favours Atalanta

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Monza, 0 draws, 5 for Atalanta, with 3.8 goals a game. Most recently: Monza 0–4 Atalanta (4 May 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 100%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 80%. Monza score 1.8 and concede 2.4 a game, Atalanta 1.4 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.9 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Atalanta · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 100%. In 1X2: Atalanta have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Monza — last game: Away to Bologna (1-2) they had 38% of the shots (6 to 10, on target 4-5) and 40% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target. They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs. Atalanta — last game: Against Kairat Almaty (1-1) they had 65% of the shots (15 to 8, on target 7-4) and 70% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → goal on 82′. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.38 → 2.62 (+10.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 5.00 → 5.50 (+10%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.57 → 1.50 (-4.5%, backed).