Heerenveen v Feyenoord: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · tomorrow 13:15 · Abe Lenstra Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Heerenveen in good form
Heerenveen have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over NEC Nijmegen and a 2–0 away win at Excelsior Maassluis. Feyenoord have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to Inter and a 1–1 home draw with Fortuna Sittard.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Heerenveen score 2.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Feyenoord 1.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.9 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Feyenoord · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Feyenoord have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Heerenveen — last game: Against NEC Nijmegen (1-0) they had 28% of the shots (8 to 21, on target 2-2) and 38% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Feyenoord — last game: Against Inter (0-3) they had 50% of the shots (11 to 11, on target 2-6) and 53% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 6 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 8′. 15′–30′: under 78% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 34′. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 20% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.