Genoa v AC Milan: analysis and our pick

Genoa in good form

Genoa have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Lecce and a 2–0 home win over Juventus. AC Milan have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Ferencvarosi TC and a 3–1 home win over Inter.

The head-to-head favours AC Milan

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Genoa, 3 draws, 2 for AC Milan, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Genoa 1–2 AC Milan (17 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. Genoa score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game, AC Milan 1.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.4 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · AC Milan · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: AC Milan have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Genoa — last game: Away to Lecce (2-1) they had 42% of the shots (13 to 18, on target 3-7) and 47% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 7 on target. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 40′. 45′–60′: under 81% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. AC Milan — last game: Against Ferencvarosi TC (0-2) they had 56% of the shots (15 to 12, on target 2-8) and 70% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 8 on target. 🟥 Red card on 77′ for Ferencvarosi TC (Bamidele Isa Yusuf): the opponent played with ten for ~13 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Genoa) 4.50 → 4.00 (-11.1%, backed) · 2 (AC Milan) 1.80 → 1.95 (+8.3%, drifting) · Over 3.5 3.75 → 4.00 (+6.7%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.60 → 3.40 (-5.6%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.