FC Twente v Ajax: analysis and our pick

FC Twente in good form

FC Twente have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Pafos and a 9–0 away win at Excelsior. Ajax have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 6–1 away win at Midtjylland and a 1–0 home win over AZ Alkmaar.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for FC Twente, 1 draw, 2 for Ajax, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Ajax 0–1 FC Twente (16 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. FC Twente score 3.8 and concede 0.8 a game, Ajax 3.2 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 2.1 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Ajax · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Ajax have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

FC Twente — last game: Against Pafos (3-1) they had 79% of the shots (23 to 6, on target 12-4) and 77% possession. From 12 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 64′ for Pafos (Lele): the opponent played with ten for ~26 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 39′. Over the last 5 they averaged 75% of the shots and 75% of the shots on target (on top in 5 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents. Ajax — last game: Away to Midtjylland (6-1) they had 70% of the shots (23 to 10, on target 10-4) and 71% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 6, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 43′ for Midtjylland (K. Watjen): the opponent played with ten for ~47 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → goal on 9′. 15′–30′: pressed with 93% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 28′. 30′–45′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Ajax) 2.90 → 3.30 (+13.8%, drifting) · 1 (FC Twente) 2.25 → 2.00 (-11.1%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.60 → 2.70 (+3.8%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.62 → 1.67 (+3.1%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.