Çorum FK v Fenerbahce: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · tomorrow 15:00 · Corum Stadyumu. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Çorum FK in good form
Çorum FK have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Erzurumspor FK and a 0–2 away defeat at Goztepe. Fenerbahce have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Liverpool and a 1–2 home defeat to Goztepe.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 50%. Çorum FK score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Fenerbahce 2.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.2 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 74% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Çorum FK · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 74%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Çorum FK have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Çorum FK — last game: Away to Erzurumspor FK (3-1) they had 35% of the shots (7 to 13, on target 3-3) and 47% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 20′. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–76′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 74′, scored on the break on 71′. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Fenerbahce — last game: Against Liverpool (3-2) they had 44% of the shots (17 to 22, on target 6-6) and 32% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → conceded on 25′, scored on the break on 29′. 30′–45′: pressed with 77% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance 1X 1.91 → 2.10 (+9.9%, drifting) · Double chance 12 1.22 → 1.25 (+2.5%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.20 → 1.22 (+1.7%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.