Club Brugge KV v Anderlecht: analysis and our pick

Club Brugge KV in good form

Club Brugge KV have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at PSV Eindhoven and a 4–2 away win at Zulte Waregem. Anderlecht have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Red Bull Salzburg and a 4–1 home win over KVC Westerlo.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 85%, both teams scored 55%. Club Brugge KV score 2.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Anderlecht 2.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.0 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 81% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Club Brugge KV · 59%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 81%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Club Brugge KV have the highest probability (59%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Club Brugge KV — last game: Away to PSV Eindhoven (2-1) they had 27% of the shots (10 to 27, on target 3-9) and 38% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 9 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 25′. 46′–60′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 54′. Over the last 4 they averaged 43% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 57% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Anderlecht — last game: Against Red Bull Salzburg (2-0) they had 60% of the shots (12 to 8, on target 7-3) and 45% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 20′. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 65% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.