West Brom v Millwall: analysis and our pick
Championship · today 17:00 · The Hawthorns. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
West Brom in good form
West Brom have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Southampton and a 3–1 away win at West Ham. Millwall have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Birmingham and a 4–1 home win over Derby.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 60%. West Brom score 2.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Millwall 1.4 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.1 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · West Brom · 52%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: West Brom have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
West Brom — last game: Against Southampton (1-1) they had 65% of the shots (17 to 9, on target 5-3) and 53% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Millwall — last game: Away to Birmingham (0-3) they had 44% of the shots (15 to 19, on target 2-8) and 45% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 8 on target. 15′–30′: under 82% of the pressure → conceded on 16′, 29′. 30′–45′: under 91% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 78% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Millwall) 3.75 → 3.60 (-4%, backed) · 1 (West Brom) 1.95 → 2.00 (+2.6%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.25 → 1.28 (+2.4%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.