VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen: analysis and our pick

Werder Bremen have a chance to respond

VfB Stuttgart have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Galatasaray and a 4–2 away win at Bayer Leverkusen. Werder Bremen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over 1899 Hoffenheim and a 2–3 away defeat at Borussia Dortmund.

The head-to-head favours Werder Bremen

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for VfB Stuttgart, 2 draws, 2 for Werder Bremen, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Werder Bremen (26 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. VfB Stuttgart score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game, Werder Bremen 2.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.7 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · VfB Stuttgart · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: VfB Stuttgart have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

VfB Stuttgart — last game: Away to Galatasaray (0-2) they had 50% of the shots (13 to 13, on target 5-4) and 48% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Werder Bremen — last game: Against 1899 Hoffenheim (2-0) they had 53% of the shots (18 to 16, on target 4-2) and 41% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → goal on 57′. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Werder Bremen) 4.50 → 3.50 (-22.2%, backed) · 1 (VfB Stuttgart) 1.65 → 1.90 (+15.2%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.25 → 1.91 (-15.1%, backed) · Under 1.5 8.00 → 7.00 (-12.5%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.