Torino v Lecce: analysis and our pick
Serie A · tomorrow 16:00 · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Torino in good form
Torino have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Frosinone and a 1–3 home defeat to Como. Lecce have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Genoa and a 1–5 away defeat at Frosinone.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 50%. Torino score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game, Lecce 1.2 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.5 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Torino · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Torino have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Torino — last game: Away to Frosinone (0-2) they had 38% of the shots (12 to 20, on target 3-8) and 54% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 8 on target. 15′–30′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 48′. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Lecce — last game: Against Genoa (1-2) they had 58% of the shots (18 to 13, on target 7-3) and 53% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 40′. 45′–60′: pressed with 81% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 18% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 52% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.