SC Paderborn 07 v Eintracht Frankfurt: analysis and our pick

Eintracht Frankfurt have a chance to respond

SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Borussia Monchengladbach and a 0–1 home defeat to VfB Stuttgart. Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Hamburger SV and a 3–1 away win at Hamburger SV.

The head-to-head favours SC Paderborn 07

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 0 draws, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt, with 4.4 goals a game. Most recently: Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2 SC Paderborn 07 (27 Jun 2020).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. SC Paderborn 07 score 0.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.4 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.6 = 3.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · SC Paderborn 07 · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 60%. In 1X2: SC Paderborn 07 have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

SC Paderborn 07 — last game: Away to Borussia Monchengladbach (0-0) they had 54% of the shots (13 to 11, on target 4-4) and 58% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 12% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 18% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Eintracht Frankfurt — last game: Against Hamburger SV (3-1) they had 56% of the shots (15 to 12, on target 10-3) and 52% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 10′, conceded on 14′. 15′–30′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 21% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (SC Paderborn 07) 3.10 → 3.00 (-3.2%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.67 → 1.62 (-3%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.36 → 1.40 (+2.9%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.80 → 3.90 (+2.6%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.