Samsunspor v Konyaspor: analysis and our pick

Samsunspor looking for a response

Samsunspor have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 2–5 away defeat at Istanbul Basaksehir and a 1–2 home defeat to Amed. Konyaspor have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–4 home defeat to Galatasaray and a 2–0 home win over Gençlerbirliği S.K..

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Samsunspor, 1 draw, 2 for Konyaspor, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Samsunspor 2–2 Konyaspor (5 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 40%. Samsunspor score 0.8 and concede 3.0 a game, Konyaspor 0.8 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.6 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Konyaspor · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Konyaspor have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Samsunspor — last game: Away to Istanbul Basaksehir (2-5) they had 33% of the shots (9 to 18, on target 4-6) and 42% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 5 from 6 on target. 30′–45′: under 67% of the pressure → conceded on 41′. 45′–60′: under 79% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 75′. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 52% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents. Konyaspor — last game: Against Galatasaray (0-4) they had 33% of the shots (7 to 14, on target 1-8) and 47% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 4 from 8 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 12′. 30′–45′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 68% of the pressure → conceded on 49′, 55′. Over the last 4 they averaged 48% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 15% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.50 → 3.75 (+7.1%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting) · 2 (Konyaspor) 3.00 → 2.88 (-4%, backed) · 1 (Samsunspor) 2.30 → 2.38 (+3.5%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.