RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg: analysis and our pick

RB Leipzig in good form

RB Leipzig have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 home defeat to Manchester City and a 2–0 away win at Schalke 04. FC Augsburg have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Freiburg and a 4–2 away win at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.

The head-to-head favours RB Leipzig

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for RB Leipzig, 2 draws, 0 for FC Augsburg, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: RB Leipzig 2–1 FC Augsburg (7 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 65%. RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game, FC Augsburg 2.2 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.9 + 1.6 = 4.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 95% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · RB Leipzig · 64%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 83%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 95%: the model expects 4.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: RB Leipzig have the highest probability (64%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (7%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

RB Leipzig — last game: Against Manchester City (2-3) they had 52% of the shots (13 to 12, on target 6-5) and 35% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 37′. 45′–60′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → goal on 49′, conceded on 58′. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. FC Augsburg — last game: Against Freiburg (1-2) they had 58% of the shots (14 to 10, on target 5-2) and 55% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 34% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.75 → 3.00 (+9.1%, drifting) · Under 2.5 3.75 → 4.00 (+6.7%, drifting) · X (draw) 5.00 → 5.25 (+5%, drifting) · 2 (FC Augsburg) 6.00 → 6.25 (+4.2%, drifting).