RAAL La Louvière v Cercle Brugge: analysis and our pick

RAAL La Louvière in good form

RAAL La Louvière have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–5 away defeat at Charleroi and a 3–0 home win over Zulte Waregem. Cercle Brugge have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Antwerp and a 2–5 away defeat at Union St. Gilloise.

The head-to-head favours RAAL La Louvière

In the last 4 meetings: 3 wins for RAAL La Louvière, 0 draws, 1 for Cercle Brugge, with 3.8 goals a game. Most recently: RAAL La Louvière 4–1 Cercle Brugge (9 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 50%. RAAL La Louvière score 2.8 and concede 1.8 a game, Cercle Brugge 1.8 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 2.3 + 1.5 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · RAAL La Louvière · 54%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: RAAL La Louvière have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

RAAL La Louvière — last game: Away to Charleroi (2-5) they had 42% of the shots (10 to 14, on target 3-6) and 42% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 5 from 6 on target. 🟥 Red card on 89′ for Charleroi (C. Keita): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 45% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target. They turn 71% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Cercle Brugge — last game: Against Antwerp (2-1) they had 40% of the shots (10 to 15, on target 5-4) and 41% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 36% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target. They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.20 → 2.00 (-9.1%, backed) · Both teams score 1.62 → 1.75 (+8%, drifting) · Under 1.5 3.75 → 3.50 (-6.7%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.85 → 1.95 (+5.4%, drifting).