QPR v Lincoln: analysis and our pick
Championship · today 17:00 · Loftus Road. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Lincoln have a chance to respond
QPR have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Burnley and a 1–4 away defeat at Southampton. Lincoln have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Watford and a 1–3 home defeat to Birmingham.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 50%. QPR score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Lincoln 1.4 and 2.6. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.1 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · QPR · 52%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: QPR have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
QPR — last game: Against Burnley (1-1) they had 83% of the shots (20 to 4, on target 5-1) and 58% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 1 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 65′. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Lincoln — last game: Away to Watford (0-1) they had 40% of the shots (12 to 18, on target 1-2) and 41% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: X (draw) 3.80 → 3.90 (+2.6%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.