Preston v Southampton: analysis and our pick
Championship · today 17:00 · Deepdale Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Preston looking for a response
Preston have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–3 home defeat to Sheffield Utd and a 0–2 away defeat at Stoke City. Southampton have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with West Brom and a 4–1 home win over QPR.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 65%. Preston score 0.8 and concede 2.8 a game, Southampton 1.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.8 = 2.7 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Southampton · 55%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Southampton have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Preston — last game: Against Sheffield Utd (2-3) they had 25% of the shots (6 to 18, on target 2-5) and 39% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 2′. 30′–45′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 37′, 45′. 45′–60′: under 82% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 34% of the shots and 22% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs. Southampton — last game: Away to West Brom (1-1) they had 35% of the shots (9 to 17, on target 3-5) and 47% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Preston) 4.75 → 5.00 (+5.3%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 2.15 → 2.25 (+4.7%, drifting) · 2 (Southampton) 1.67 → 1.62 (-3%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.