Portsmouth v Stoke City: analysis and our pick
Championship · tomorrow 14:30 · Fratton Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Portsmouth in good form
Portsmouth have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Swansea and a 0–0 away draw with Burnley. Stoke City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Blackburn and a 2–0 home win over Preston.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 55%. Portsmouth score 1.4 and concede 0.6 a game, Stoke City 1.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.4 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Portsmouth · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Portsmouth have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Portsmouth — last game: Against Swansea (3-1) they had 59% of the shots (13 to 9, on target 5-3) and 36% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 78% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Stoke City — last game: Away to Blackburn (2-1) they had 44% of the shots (11 to 14, on target 3-3) and 41% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.