Parma v Bologna: analysis and our pick

Parma looking for a response

Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at Atalanta and a 0–0 home draw with Udinese. Bologna have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Monza and a 4–2 away win at AC Milan.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Parma, 1 draw, 2 for Bologna, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Bologna 0–1 Parma (8 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Parma score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game, Bologna 2.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.4 = 2.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 69% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Bologna · 48%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 69%: the model expects 2.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Bologna have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Parma — last game: Away to Atalanta (3-0) they had 23% of the shots (6 to 20, on target 3-7) and 30% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 7 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → goal on 41′. 60′–75′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 21% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Bologna — last game: Against Monza (2-1) they had 63% of the shots (10 to 6, on target 5-4) and 60% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Parma) 4.50 → 5.25 (+16.7%, drifting) · 2 (Bologna) 1.83 → 1.70 (-7.1%, backed) · X (draw) 3.50 → 3.60 (+2.9%, drifting) · Not both to score 1.80 → 1.75 (-2.8%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.