Osasuna v Athletic Club: analysis and our pick

Osasuna looking for a response

Osasuna have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Deportivo La Coruna and a 6–0 away win at Atletico Calatayud. Athletic Club have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Real Sociedad and a 6–1 away win at Prat.

The head-to-head favours Athletic Club

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Osasuna, 2 draws, 2 for Athletic Club, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Athletic Club 1–0 Osasuna (21 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 40%. Osasuna score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Athletic Club 2.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.2 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 71% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Athletic Club · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 71%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Athletic Club have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Osasuna — last game: Away to Deportivo La Coruna (1-2) they had 38% of the shots (11 to 18, on target 2-7) and 38% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 7 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 82% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 45% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Athletic Club — last game: Against Real Sociedad (2-1) they had 50% of the shots (13 to 13, on target 3-4) and 38% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 57% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.20 → 3.40 (+6.2%, drifting) · Over 3.5 4.00 → 3.75 (-6.2%, backed) · Not both to score 1.80 → 1.91 (+6.1%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.73 → 1.80 (+4%, drifting).