Nottingham Forest v Manchester City: analysis and our pick

Nottingham Forest looking for a response

Nottingham Forest have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Brentford and a 1–1 away draw with Ipswich. Manchester City have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win at RB Leipzig and a 0–1 home defeat to Brighton.

The head-to-head favours Manchester City

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Nottingham Forest, 1 draw, 3 for Manchester City, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham Forest (4 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Nottingham Forest score 0.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Manchester City 2.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 0.8 + 1.6 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 70% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Manchester City · 56%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 58%). Most likely score: 0–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 70%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Manchester City have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 0–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Nottingham Forest — last game: Away to Brentford (0-2) they had 68% of the shots (15 to 7, on target 1-1) and 58% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 1 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 67% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 5 of 5). They turn 12% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Manchester City — last game: Away to RB Leipzig (3-2) they had 48% of the shots (12 to 13, on target 5-6) and 65% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 37′. 45′–60′: under 70% of the pressure → conceded on 49′, scored on the break on 58′. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.30 → 2.20 (-4.3%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.62 → 1.67 (+3.1%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.00 → 3.90 (-2.5%, backed) · Double chance 1X 2.05 → 2.00 (-2.4%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.