Nacional v Academico Viseu: analysis and our pick
Primeira Liga · tomorrow 17:30 · Estádio da Madeira. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Nacional looking for a response
Nacional have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Arouca and a 1–0 home win over Braga. Academico Viseu have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Rio Ave and a 0–1 away defeat at FC Porto.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 40%. Nacional score 0.6 and concede 1.8 a game, Academico Viseu 1.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.4 = 2.4 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 70% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Academico Viseu · 47%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 70%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Academico Viseu have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Nacional — last game: Away to Arouca (0-1) they had 29% of the shots (5 to 12, on target 1-5) and 38% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 41% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target. They turn 23% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Academico Viseu — last game: Against Rio Ave (2-1) they had 52% of the shots (13 to 12, on target 5-5) and 45% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: under 93% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → goal on 69′. Over the last 3 they averaged 40% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target. They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.