FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern Munich: analysis and our pick

FSV Mainz 05 looking for a response

FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at SV Elversberg and a 0–2 away defeat at VfL Bochum. Bayern Munich have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Atletico Madrid and a 2–2 home draw with Borussia Dortmund.

The head-to-head favours Bayern Munich

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for FSV Mainz 05, 1 draw, 3 for Bayern Munich, with 4.2 goals a game. Most recently: FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern Munich (25 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 65%. FSV Mainz 05 score 1.4 and concede 2.6 a game, Bayern Munich 3.0 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 2.3 = 3.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 89% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Bayern Munich · 56%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 72%). Most likely score: 1–2.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 89%: the model expects 3.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Bayern Munich have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 72% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

FSV Mainz 05 — last game: Away to SV Elversberg (1-4) they had 43% of the shots (10 to 13, on target 2-6) and 46% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 6 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for FSV Mainz 05 (Stefan Posch): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 71% of the pressure → conceded on 7′. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 26′. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs. Bayern Munich — last game: Away to Atletico Madrid (2-0) they had 70% of the shots (19 to 8, on target 5-2) and 59% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (FSV Mainz 05) 7.00 → 8.50 (+21.4%, drifting) · 2 (Bayern Munich) 1.33 → 1.27 (-4.5%, backed) · Under 3.5 2.38 → 2.30 (-3.4%, backed) · Over 3.5 1.57 → 1.62 (+3.2%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.