Eyupspor v Kocaelispor: analysis and our pick

Eyupspor looking for a response

Eyupspor have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at Fethiyespor and a 1–5 away defeat at Amed. Kocaelispor have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Rizespor and a 3–0 home win over Mazıdağı Fosfatspor.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 35%. Eyupspor score 1.0 and concede 2.8 a game, Kocaelispor 1.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.4 = 2.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 73% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Kocaelispor · 41%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 73%: the model expects 2.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Kocaelispor have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Eyupspor — last game: Away to Amed (1-5) they had 20% of the shots (5 to 20, on target 2-7) and 44% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 5 from 7 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Amed (S. Ballet): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 35′, 42′. 45′–60′: under 95% of the pressure → conceded on 52′. 76′–90′: under 79% of the pressure → conceded on 83′. Over the last 4 they averaged 36% of the shots and 34% of the shots on target. They turn 9% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 57% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Kocaelispor — last game: Against Rizespor (0-0) they had 45% of the shots (14 to 17, on target 4-4) and 49% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 30′–45′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 120% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 78% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 52% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.