Dundee Utd v Motherwell: analysis and our pick

Dundee Utd in good form

Dundee Utd have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Celtic and a 3–2 home win over Aberdeen. Motherwell have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over ST Mirren and a 2–2 away draw with ST Johnstone.

The head-to-head favours Motherwell

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Dundee Utd, 1 draw, 3 for Motherwell, with 1.6 goals a game. Most recently: Motherwell 3–0 Dundee Utd (2 Sept 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. Dundee Utd score 2.0 and concede 1.0 a game, Motherwell 1.0 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Dundee Utd · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Dundee Utd have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Dundee Utd — last game: Away to Celtic (2-2) they had 28% of the shots (11 to 28, on target 5-7) and 35% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 7 on target. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 95% of the pressure → conceded on 65′. 75′–90′: under 65% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 26% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Motherwell — last game: Against ST Mirren (1-0) they had 69% of the shots (11 to 5, on target 2-1) and 52% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 21% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.38 → 2.50 (+5%, drifting) · 2 (Motherwell) 3.25 → 3.40 (+4.6%, drifting) · 1 (Dundee Utd) 1.95 → 2.00 (+2.6%, drifting) · Double chance 12 1.28 → 1.25 (-2.3%, backed).