Charlton v Sheffield Utd: analysis and our pick

Charlton looking for a response

Charlton have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Bolton and a 0–3 away defeat at Middlesbrough. Sheffield Utd have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win at Preston and a 1–0 home win over Wrexham.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. Charlton score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game, Sheffield Utd 1.6 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.4 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 70% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Sheffield Utd · 44%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 70%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Sheffield Utd have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Charlton — last game: Against Bolton (0-1) they had 56% of the shots (14 to 11, on target 2-3) and 57% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Sheffield Utd — last game: Away to Preston (3-2) they had 75% of the shots (18 to 6, on target 5-2) and 61% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 2′. 30′–45′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → goal on 37′, 45′. 45′–60′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance 1X 1.80 → 1.70 (-5.6%, backed) · 1 (Charlton) 3.70 → 3.50 (-5.4%, backed) · 2 (Sheffield Utd) 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.40 → 3.30 (-2.9%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.