Cagliari v Frosinone: analysis and our pick

Cagliari looking for a response

Cagliari have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Lazio and a 2–4 away defeat at AS Roma. Frosinone have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Torino and a 5–1 home win over Lecce.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Cagliari score 0.8 and concede 2.6 a game, Frosinone 3.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.7 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 81% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Frosinone · 48%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 81%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Frosinone have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Cagliari — last game: Away to Lazio (1-2) they had 45% of the shots (9 to 11, on target 3-4) and 26% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Cagliari (Adam Obert): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 20′. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 36′. 45′–60′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target. They turn 21% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents. Frosinone — last game: Against Torino (2-0) they had 63% of the shots (20 to 12, on target 8-3) and 46% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 48′. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3.