Bristol City v Norwich: analysis and our pick

Bristol City looking for a response

Bristol City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Wolves and a 3–2 away win at Bolton. Norwich have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–0 away win at Derby and a 3–2 home win over Watford.

The head-to-head favours Bristol City

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Bristol City, 1 draw, 1 for Norwich, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Bristol City 2–4 Norwich (18 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Bristol City score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Norwich 2.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.5 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Norwich · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Norwich have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bristol City — last game: Against Wolves (1-2) they had 23% of the shots (5 to 17, on target 3-8) and 37% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 8 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–76′: under 90% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Norwich — last game: Away to Derby (4-0) they had 76% of the shots (19 to 6, on target 8-2) and 54% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 90% of the pressure → goal on 8′. 15′–30′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → goal on 27′. 30′–45′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → goal on 44′. Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.00 → 4.33 (+8.3%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting) · 2 (Norwich) 2.50 → 2.40 (-4%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.80 → 1.73 (-3.9%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.