Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg: analysis and our pick

Borussia Dortmund in good form

Borussia Dortmund have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Real Betis and a 2–2 away draw with Bayern Munich. SV Elversberg have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over FSV Mainz 05 and a 0–2 home defeat to SV Darmstadt 98.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. Borussia Dortmund score 2.0 and concede 1.2 a game, SV Elversberg 1.6 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.1 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Borussia Dortmund · 55%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Borussia Dortmund have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Borussia Dortmund — last game: Against Real Betis (2-1) they had 58% of the shots (15 to 11, on target 6-4) and 53% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 45′–60′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 49′. 75′–90′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. SV Elversberg — last game: Against FSV Mainz 05 (4-1) they had 57% of the shots (13 to 10, on target 6-2) and 54% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for FSV Mainz 05 (Stefan Posch): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → goal on 7′. 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 26′. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: X (draw) 6.00 → 5.50 (-8.3%, backed) · Under 1.5 7.00 → 6.50 (-7.1%, backed) · 2 (SV Elversberg) 8.50 → 8.00 (-5.9%, backed) · 1 (Borussia Dortmund) 1.30 → 1.33 (+2.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.