Birmingham v Swansea: analysis and our pick
Championship · today 17:00 · St. Andrew's Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Birmingham in good form
Birmingham have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Millwall and a 3–1 away win at Lincoln. Swansea have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Portsmouth and a 4–0 home win over Blackburn.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 50%. Birmingham score 2.6 and concede 0.4 a game, Swansea 1.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.2 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Birmingham · 58%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Birmingham have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Birmingham — last game: Against Millwall (3-0) they had 56% of the shots (19 to 15, on target 8-2) and 55% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → goal on 16′, 29′. 30′–45′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 12% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Swansea — last game: Away to Portsmouth (1-3) they had 41% of the shots (9 to 13, on target 3-5) and 64% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 45% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.