Auxerre v Paris FC: analysis and our pick
Ligue 1 · tomorrow 20:00 · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Paris FC have a chance to respond
Auxerre have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–5 away defeat at Strasbourg and a 1–1 home draw with Le Mans. Paris FC have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Monaco and a 1–2 away defeat at Lens.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 75%. Auxerre score 2.0 and concede 2.8 a game, Paris FC 2.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.5 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Auxerre · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Auxerre have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Auxerre — last game: Away to Strasbourg (1-5) they had 24% of the shots (6 to 19, on target 2-6) and 36% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 5 from 6 on target. 🟥 Red card on 74′ for Auxerre (Lamfia Dioubaté): they played with ten for ~16 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 41′. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target. They turn 59% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 58% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs. Paris FC — last game: Against Monaco (3-1) they had 67% of the shots (18 to 9, on target 10-2) and 44% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 79% of the pressure → goal on 38′, 44′. Over the last 5 they averaged 64% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.