AS Roma v Sassuolo: analysis and our pick

AS Roma in good form

AS Roma have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Manchester United and a 5–2 away win at Udinese. Sassuolo have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–4 home defeat to Fiorentina and a 2–6 home defeat to Lazio.

The head-to-head favours AS Roma

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for AS Roma, 0 draws, 1 for Sassuolo, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: AS Roma 2–0 Sassuolo (10 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 75%. AS Roma score 3.6 and concede 2.0 a game, Sassuolo 1.4 and 3.4. The Poisson model expects 2.7 + 1.2 = 3.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 91% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · AS Roma · 67%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 74%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 91%: the model expects 3.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: AS Roma have the highest probability (67%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 74% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

AS Roma — last game: Away to Manchester United (2-3) they had 32% of the shots (7 to 15, on target 4-6) and 47% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 6 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Manchester United (Matheus Cunha): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → goal on 17′. 61′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 83′, 86′. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 51% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Sassuolo — last game: Against Fiorentina (2-4) they had 29% of the shots (6 to 15, on target 2-6) and 58% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 4 from 6 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 50′. Over the last 5 they averaged 37% of the shots and 28% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: X (draw) 6.00 → 5.50 (-8.3%, backed) · Under 2.5 3.20 → 3.00 (-6.3%, backed) · Under 3.5 1.91 → 1.80 (-5.8%, backed) · 2 (Sassuolo) 9.00 → 8.50 (-5.6%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.