Aris Thessalonikis v Panetolikos: analysis and our pick

Aris Thessalonikis in good form

Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Levadiakos and a 1–2 away defeat at Panathinaikos. Panetolikos have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to OFI and a 0–5 away defeat at AEK Athens.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Aris Thessalonikis score 1.8 and concede 1.8 a game, Panetolikos 0.2 and 2.6. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 0.9 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Aris Thessalonikis · 66%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 58%). Most likely score: 2–0.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Aris Thessalonikis have the highest probability (66%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Aris Thessalonikis — last game: Away to Levadiakos (0-3) they had 47% of the shots (9 to 10, on target 1-5) and 70% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 86% of the pressure → conceded on 42′. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 58% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Panetolikos — last game: Against OFI (0-1) they had 52% of the shots (13 to 12, on target 3-2) and 37% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 69′ for Panetolikos (Athanasios Prodromitis): they played with ten for ~21 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 35% of the shots and 26% of the shots on target. They turn 9% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs.