Antwerp v Lommel United: analysis and our pick

Antwerp looking for a response

Antwerp have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Cercle Brugge and a 3–0 home win over Charleroi. Lommel United have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Gent and a 2–2 away draw with OH Leuven.

The head-to-head favours Antwerp

In the last 4 meetings: 2 wins for Antwerp, 1 draw, 1 for Lommel United, with 2.5 goals a game. Most recently: Antwerp 1–0 Lommel United (26 Feb 2017).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. Antwerp score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Lommel United 2.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.6 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Antwerp · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Antwerp have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Antwerp — last game: Away to Cercle Brugge (1-2) they had 60% of the shots (15 to 10, on target 4-5) and 59% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 41% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs. Lommel United — last game: Against Gent (2-0) they had 53% of the shots (16 to 14, on target 7-4) and 59% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–31′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 81% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 52% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 54% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.25 → 2.38 (+5.8%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.50 → 2.38 (-4.8%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.83 → 1.91 (+4.4%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.70 → 3.60 (-2.7%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.