ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · tomorrow 19:45 · Bingoal Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Sparta Rotterdam have a chance to respond
ADO Den Haag have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at PEC Zwolle and a 1–1 away draw with Excelsior '31. Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win at Groningen and a 2–2 home draw with Fortuna Sittard.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 85%. ADO Den Haag score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Sparta Rotterdam 2.4 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.9 = 4.0 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 92% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · ADO Den Haag · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 92%: the model expects 4.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: ADO Den Haag have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
ADO Den Haag — last game: Away to PEC Zwolle (0-1) they had 33% of the shots (12 to 24, on target 3-5) and 66% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 39% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Sparta Rotterdam — last game: Away to Groningen (3-2) they had 29% of the shots (8 to 20, on target 4-10) and 41% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 10 on target. 0′–15′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 1′, scored on the break on 15′. 45′–60′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.