Aberdeen v Hibernian: analysis and our pick
Premiership · today 19:45 · Pittodrie Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Aberdeen looking for a response
Aberdeen have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Rangers and a 0–1 home defeat to Falkirk. Hibernian have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Hearts and a 1–1 away draw with ST Mirren.
An even head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Aberdeen, 1 draw, 2 for Hibernian, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Hibernian 1–1 Aberdeen (19 Sept 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 60%. Aberdeen score 1.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Hibernian 1.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.0 = 2.1 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 64% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Aberdeen · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 64%: the model expects 2.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Aberdeen have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Aberdeen — last game: Against Falkirk (0-1) they had 56% of the shots (15 to 12, on target 5-4) and 45% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 63% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Hibernian — last game: Away to ST Mirren (1-1) they had 45% of the shots (9 to 11, on target 1-3) and 58% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 50% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Aberdeen) 2.40 → 2.60 (+8.3%, drifting) · Over 3.5 3.00 → 3.20 (+6.7%, drifting) · Under 1.5 4.00 → 3.75 (-6.2%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.80 → 1.91 (+6.1%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.