Willem II v PEC Zwolle: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · Friday 6 November 21:00 · Koning Willem II Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Willem II looking for a response
Willem II have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–7 away defeat at PSV Eindhoven and a 4–3 away win at Helmond Sport. PEC Zwolle have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over ADO Den Haag and a 1–2 home defeat to FC OSS.
The head-to-head favours PEC Zwolle
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Willem II, 1 draw, 3 for PEC Zwolle, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Willem II 1–2 PEC Zwolle (14 May 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. Willem II score 1.6 and concede 4.4 a game, PEC Zwolle 1.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 2.1 = 3.6 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 88% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · PEC Zwolle · 52%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 70%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 88%: the model expects 3.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: PEC Zwolle have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 70% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Willem II — last game: Away to PSV Eindhoven (0-7) they had 17% of the shots (4 to 20, on target 1-9) and 30% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 7 from 9 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 20′. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 44′. 45′–60′: under 92% of the pressure → conceded on 50′, 53′. Over the last 5 they averaged 34% of the shots and 25% of the shots on target. They turn 62% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 56% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5. Red cards: 1 theirs. PEC Zwolle — last game: Against ADO Den Haag (1-0) they had 67% of the shots (24 to 12, on target 5-3) and 34% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 23% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.