Venezia v Udinese: analysis and our pick
Serie A · Friday 6 November 21:45 · Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Venezia looking for a response
Venezia have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Como and a 0–2 home defeat to Inter. Udinese have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–5 home defeat to AS Roma and a 0–0 away draw with Parma.
The head-to-head favours Udinese
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Venezia, 0 draws, 4 for Udinese, with 3.8 goals a game. Most recently: Udinese 2–1 Venezia (2 Sept 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Venezia score 0.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Udinese 0.6 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.6 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Udinese · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Udinese have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Venezia — last game: Away to Como (0-1) they had 27% of the shots (7 to 19, on target 1-4) and 34% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 11% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Udinese — last game: Against AS Roma (2-5) they had 52% of the shots (15 to 14, on target 7-9) and 46% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 5 from 9 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 77% of the pressure → conceded on 31′, 33′, 37′. 45′–60′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → goal on 50′. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 15% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.