Universidad de Concepcion v O'Higgins: analysis and our pick

Universidad de Concepcion looking for a response

Universidad de Concepcion have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–6 away defeat at Colo Colo and a 0–1 home defeat to Deportes Limache. O'Higgins have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Nublense and a 1–1 home draw with Cobresal.

The head-to-head favours Universidad de Concepcion

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Universidad de Concepcion, 2 draws, 1 for O'Higgins, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: O'Higgins 0–1 Universidad de Concepcion (17 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 50%. Universidad de Concepcion score 0.6 and concede 2.4 a game, O'Higgins 1.0 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.3 = 2.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 69% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · O'Higgins · 42%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 69%: the model expects 2.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: O'Higgins have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Universidad de Concepcion — last game: Away to Colo Colo (1-6) they had 46% of the shots (11 to 13, on target 1-10) and 28% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 6 from 10 on target. 🟥 Red card on 57′ for Universidad de Concepcion (Benjamín Sáez): they played with ten for ~33 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 30% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 20% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 34% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents. O'Higgins — last game: Against Nublense (1-0) they had 48% of the shots (12 to 13, on target 3-3) and 46% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 45′ for O'Higgins (Arnaldo Castillo): they played with ten for ~45 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 🟥 Red card on 88′ for Nublense (Joaquín González): the opponent played with ten for ~2 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.