Universidad de Chile v Antofagasta: analysis and our pick
Copa Chile · Friday 6 November 00:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Antofagasta have a chance to respond
Universidad de Chile have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at U. Catolica and a 4–1 home win over Everton de Vina. Antofagasta have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Curico Unido and a 0–0 away draw with Deportes Santa Cruz.
The head-to-head favours Universidad de Chile
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Universidad de Chile, 2 draws, 1 for Antofagasta, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Antofagasta 2–0 Universidad de Chile (8 Oct 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Universidad de Chile score 2.2 and concede 1.0 a game, Antofagasta 2.2 and 0.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Universidad de Chile · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Universidad de Chile have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Universidad de Chile — last game: Away to U. Catolica (0-1) they had 63% of the shots (10 to 6, on target 0-2) and 70% possession. No shots on target, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 4′. Over the last 5 they averaged 68% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 55% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Antofagasta — last game: Against San Marcos de Arica (3-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Antofagasta). Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.