Union Magdalena v Ind. Yumbo: analysis and our pick

Ind. Yumbo have a chance to respond

Union Magdalena have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Envigado and a 1–1 away draw with Popayan. Ind. Yumbo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–4 home defeat to Popayan and a 0–2 away defeat at Envigado.

The head-to-head favours Union Magdalena

In the last 2 meetings: 1 win for Union Magdalena, 1 draw, 0 for Ind. Yumbo, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Union Magdalena 1–1 Ind. Yumbo (16 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 25%, both teams scored 60%. Union Magdalena score 1.0 and concede 0.6 a game, Ind. Yumbo 1.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.0 = 2.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 62% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Union Magdalena · 35%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 67%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 62%: the model expects 2.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Union Magdalena have the highest probability (35%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Ind. Yumbo — last game: Against Popayan (2-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 2.