Ulaanbaatar v Central Stallions: analysis and our pick
Premier League · Friday 6 November 07:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Ulaanbaatar in good form
Ulaanbaatar have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 9–1 away win at Hunters and a 1–0 home win over Deren. Central Stallions have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–3 home draw with Deren and a 7–1 away win at Hunters.
The head-to-head favours Ulaanbaatar
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Ulaanbaatar, 0 draws, 2 for Central Stallions, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Central Stallions 0–1 Ulaanbaatar (25 Oct 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 45%. Ulaanbaatar score 4.2 and concede 0.2 a game, Central Stallions 2.4 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.5 + 1.7 = 4.3 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 93% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Ulaanbaatar · 54%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 80%). Most likely score: 2–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 93%: the model expects 4.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Ulaanbaatar have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.