Toulouse v Strasbourg: analysis and our pick

Strasbourg have a chance to respond

Toulouse have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Marseille and a 0–0 home draw with Estac Troyes. Strasbourg have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 5–1 home win over Auxerre and a 0–3 away defeat at Rennes.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Toulouse, 1 draw, 2 for Strasbourg, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse (3 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. Toulouse score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game, Strasbourg 1.6 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.4 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Toulouse · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Toulouse have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Toulouse — last game: Away to Marseille (0-2) they had 52% of the shots (14 to 13, on target 7-3) and 57% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 1′. 15′–30′: under 86% of the pressure → conceded on 25′. 45′–60′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Strasbourg — last game: Against Auxerre (5-1) they had 76% of the shots (19 to 6, on target 6-2) and 64% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 74′ for Auxerre (Lamfia Dioubaté): the opponent played with ten for ~16 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → goal on 41′. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.