Standard Liege v SK Beveren: analysis and our pick

Standard Liege looking for a response

Standard Liege have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Kortrijk and a 1–2 away defeat at Genk. SK Beveren have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Union St. Gilloise and a 4–4 away draw with KVC Westerlo.

The head-to-head favours Standard Liege

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Standard Liege, 0 draws, 1 for SK Beveren, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: SK Beveren 1–2 Standard Liege (28 Oct 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Standard Liege score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game, SK Beveren 1.8 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.2 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Standard Liege · 52%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Standard Liege have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Standard Liege — last game: Against Kortrijk (1-1) they had 57% of the shots (16 to 12, on target 6-5) and 60% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 49% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 20% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents. SK Beveren — last game: Against Union St. Gilloise (1-2) they had 50% of the shots (10 to 10, on target 4-4) and 54% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 53′ for Union St. Gilloise (Dylan Aquino): the opponent played with ten for ~37 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 40% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target. They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents.