Sevilla v Alaves: analysis and our pick

Alaves have a chance to respond

Sevilla have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Getafe and a 3–0 away win at Hortaleza. Alaves have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–6 away defeat at Barcelona and a 1–1 home draw with Malaga.

The head-to-head favours Alaves

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Sevilla, 2 draws, 2 for Alaves, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Sevilla 1–1 Alaves (14 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 65%. Sevilla score 2.0 and concede 2.0 a game, Alaves 0.8 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.2 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Sevilla · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Sevilla have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Sevilla — last game: Away to Getafe (1-3) they had 50% of the shots (11 to 11, on target 4-5) and 53% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Sevilla (Manuel Bueno Sebastián): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 19′. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 68′, 73′. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs. Alaves — last game: Away to Barcelona (1-6) they had 35% of the shots (7 to 13, on target 3-7) and 23% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 6 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 21% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.