Santos Laguna W v Tijuana W: analysis and our pick
Liga MX Femenil · Friday 6 November 05:10 · Estadio Corona. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Tijuana W have a chance to respond
Santos Laguna W have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Necaxa W and a 1–2 home defeat to León W. Tijuana W have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to Cruz Azul W and a 1–1 home draw with Pumas UNAM W.
The head-to-head favours Tijuana W
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Santos Laguna W, 2 draws, 3 for Tijuana W, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Santos Laguna W 2–2 Tijuana W (11 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Santos Laguna W score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Tijuana W 1.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.4 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Santos Laguna W · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Santos Laguna W have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Tijuana W — last game: Away to Puebla W (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Tijuana W). Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.