Rubio NU v Sportivo Luqueno: analysis and our pick
Division Profesional - Clausura · Friday 6 November 00:00 · Estadio La Arboleda. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Sportivo Luqueno have a chance to respond
Rubio NU have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at Sportivo Trinidense and a 0–2 home defeat to Club Guarani. Sportivo Luqueno have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to Nacional Asuncion and a 0–2 home defeat to Deportivo Recoleta.
The head-to-head favours Sportivo Luqueno
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Rubio NU, 1 draw, 3 for Sportivo Luqueno, with 1.6 goals a game. Most recently: Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Rubio NU (28 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 40%. Rubio NU score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game, Sportivo Luqueno 0.6 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.1 = 2.4 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 70% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Rubio NU · 39%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 70%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Rubio NU have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Rubio NU — last game: Away to Sportivo Trinidense (4-2) they had 56% of the shots (18 to 14, on target 7-3) and 47% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Sportivo Luqueno — last game: Against Nacional Asuncion (0-3) they had 37% of the shots (7 to 12, on target 3-7) and 47% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 7 on target. 🟥 Red card on 48′ for Sportivo Luqueno (Aldo Maiz): they played with ten for ~42 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 75′–90′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 56% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 14% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 45% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.