Querétaro W v Toluca W: analysis and our pick

Querétaro W looking for a response

Querétaro W have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 0–5 home defeat to Pachuca W and a 1–2 away defeat at Juárez W. Toluca W have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–3 home defeat to Guadalajara W and a 2–1 away win at Cruz Azul W.

The head-to-head favours Querétaro W

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Querétaro W, 0 draws, 2 for Toluca W, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Querétaro W 1–4 Toluca W (27 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 45%. Querétaro W score 0.2 and concede 2.2 a game, Toluca W 2.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 2.3 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Toluca W · 66%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 0–2.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Toluca W have the highest probability (66%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 0–2 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Querétaro W — last game: Against Pachuca W (0-5) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.