PSIM Yogyakarta v Dewa United: analysis and our pick
Liga 1 · Friday 6 November 10:30 · Mandala Krida Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
PSIM Yogyakarta looking for a response
PSIM Yogyakarta have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Pusamania Borneo and a 0–0 away draw with Isenmulang Kalteng. Dewa United have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Persita and a 2–1 home win over Persija.
The head-to-head favours Dewa United
In the last 4 meetings: 1 win for PSIM Yogyakarta, 1 draw, 2 for Dewa United, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Dewa United 1–0 PSIM Yogyakarta (3 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. PSIM Yogyakarta score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game, Dewa United 1.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.6 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Dewa United · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Dewa United have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.