Palmeiras v Remo: analysis and our pick

Palmeiras in good form

Palmeiras have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Vasco DA Gama and a 0–0 away draw with Santos. Remo have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Botafogo and a 0–1 away defeat at Cruzeiro.

An even head-to-head

In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Palmeiras, 1 draw, 0 for Remo, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Remo 1–1 Palmeiras (10 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 50%. Palmeiras score 1.0 and concede 0.2 a game, Remo 0.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 0.6 = 2.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 66% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Palmeiras · 58%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 62%). Most likely score: 1–0.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 66%: the model expects 2.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 60%. In 1X2: Palmeiras have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–0 is the most likely score (16%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Palmeiras — last game: Against Vasco DA Gama (1-0) they had 76% of the shots (19 to 6, on target 4-1) and 60% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 🟥 Red card on 77′ for Vasco DA Gama (Alan Saldivia): the opponent played with ten for ~13 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 24′. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 6% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Remo — last game: Against Botafogo (2-1) they had 46% of the shots (11 to 13, on target 4-2) and 35% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → goal on 54′. 60′–75′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 19% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target.